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Making the Case: Q2 21 - High Quality Credit Spreads

FICC Podcasts mars 31, 2021
FICC Podcasts mars 31, 2021

 

Disponible en anglais seulement

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton debate whether spreads are more likely to widen or narrow in Q2 from current ranges based on the fundamental and technical outlooks for credit. Then they discuss recent developments in the front-end and swap spreads in light of enhanced downward pressure on money market rates.


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About Macro Horizons
BMO's Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) Macro Strategy group led by Margaret Kerins and other special guests provide weekly and monthly updates on the FICC markets through three Macro Horizons channels; US Rates - The Week Ahead, Monthly Roundtable and High Quality Credit Spreads.

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*Disponible en anglais seulement

Dan Krieter:

Hello, and welcome to Macro Horizons, High Quality Spreads for the week of March 31st, Making the Case. I'm your host, Dan Krieter, here with Dan Belton as we take a look back at high grade markets during the first quarter and debate the path of credit spreads during Q2. Each week, we offer our view on credit spreads, ranging from the highest quality sectors, such as agencies and SSAs to investment grade corporates. We also focus on US dollar swap spreads and all the factors that entails including funding markets, cross currency markets, and the transition from LIBOR to SOFR.

Dan Krieter:

The topics that come up most frequently in conversations with clients and listeners form the basis for each episode. So please don't hesitate to reach out to us with questions or topics you would like to hear discussed. We can be found on Bloomberg or emailed directly at Dan.Krieter, K-R-I-E-T-E-R @bmo.com. We value and greatly appreciate your input.

Speaker 2:

The views expressed here are those of the participants and not those of BMO Capital Markets, its affiliates, or subsidiaries.

Dan Krieter:

Well, Dan sitting here today on March 31st, the official end of Q1, it certainly feels like it's been a very action packed quarter. Treasury rates have moved significantly. We've had elevated volatility, at least compared to the years leading up to COVID. But looking back, there actually wasn't as much volatility in credit spreads was there?

Dan Belton:

No. Credit spreads have been decidedly range-bound this quarter. We've actually been in a fairly tight, 12 basis point range in the Bloomberg Barclays index remaining between 88 basis points and 100 basis points. Actually, as of trading yesterday, we are right in the middle of that range at 94 basis points. And this is consistent with what we have been expecting for at least the past three or four weeks now, when we turned neutral on credit citing and the difficulty for spreads to continue to narrow. Spreads hit their cyclical lows in the middle of February and have since bounced around this range.

Dan Krieter:

It certainly came as a surprise to me when, as the dust settles, we only traded in a 12 basis point range for all of Q1. Doesn't feel that way, but I guess that narrower range actually makes sense when you look at the dominant trading theme in Q1. And that wasn't so much a parallel move in credit spreads, but actually a rotation into potentially higher credit risk segments. And here I'm specifically talking about lower rated debt, as well as debt in sectors that was most impacted by the pandemic. And that's where we've seen the most out-performance during the first quarter was in those types of sectors. Leisure to pick one, is rallied more than 25 basis points since early January, despite the narrow range on the broad index. So if Q1 is going to be typified by not so much outright spread tightening, as much as spread compression between relationships. The question then becomes how much juice is left in that trade?

Dan Belton:

It's a good question. I think that's going to be important as we look ahead to Q2, but just to put some numbers around that, you mentioned the leisure sector, which narrowed about 27 basis over Q1. That now sits just 15 basis points wide of levels that we saw at the end of 2019. So that would indicate that there's not a ton of juice left in that trade. And that is currently the cheapest sector relative to pre pandemic spreads. We have a few others that are trading eight to nine basis points wide of pre pandemic levels, but it does seem like that rotation straight is starting to slow now. Similarly, triple B's are getting pretty rich to single lays and we're seeing compression on that basis as well.

Dan Krieter:

So Dan, then if there isn't a lot of juice left in these downing credit trades that have dominated the first quarter, I think the question obviously for spread market participants then becomes what happens next once this trade has run its course? And I think that's the question that we're going to try to answer here today. And to do that, we're going to go back to one of our tried and true formats, the Making the Case format where one of us will take the side that credit spreads will narrow from here. And the other will take the side that credit spreads will widen from here. And we're both going to make that argument. And at the end of the day, hopefully it's the listeners to hear that case. And you can decide for yourself which one is more compelling, because this neutral view that we've maintained in the market, it's really been driven by this view that there's going to be significant crosscurrents in the market where we expected fundamentals to improve, which we've seen, but technicals to deteriorate alongside higher Treasury yields and heavy supply.

Dan Krieter:

And for those crosscurrents to cancel out and leave you with arranged bond environment. That's what we've seen. Is that environment going to be maintained going forward, or will we start to see some alignment to one side or the other that can actually drive credit spreads in a parallel fashion, higher or lower? So Dan, which side would you prefer to argue? Do you want to make the narrower argument or do you want to make the spreads will go wider side?

Dan Belton:

I will argue the case for narrower credit spreads.

Dan Krieter:

Okay. Then that puts me on the side of widening. And why don't we start with looking at things from a fundamental or macroeconomic perspective, because this is obviously where we've seen the most narrowing pressure in the past few weeks, obviously evidenced by rating upgrades action, which I'm sure you'll cover when you're making the case for narrower spreads. We've seen demand for lower credit rated products that we talked about earlier. Naturally, there's this growing sense of optimism here surrounding the economic reopening and people getting vaccinated. And it's going to be a very strong return to growth once there really isn't any quarantine anymore. We're expecting that in the next few months. So if I'm going to make the argument for credit spreads widening from a fundamental perspective here in the next three months, that argument is going to just basically be that the economic reopening isn't going to be as robust as the market currently expects.

Dan Krieter:

And that sounds like a difficult argument to make, but it actually really might turn out that the market is currently pricing in too much optimism. And the main argument there is just based on stimulus. We've now for basically a year had unprecedented fiscal stimulus from the government, not to mention everything that the Fed has done on the monetary side to keep credit condition sanguine and allowed capital to continue flowing. I guess the argument for wider is that eventually that stimulus is going to slow down, okay? Probably not from the Fed here in the near term, but once all the money from Biden's most recent stimulus package has been paid out, some sectors of the economy are eventually going to have to start standing up and walking on their own. And here we can talk about things like extraordinary unemployment benefits, forbearance programs, eviction moratoriums, things like that that are going to start running out.

Dan Krieter:

I mean, they may not run out in the second quarter, but they're going to start running out soon. And we're going to see if consumers are actually as strong as we think right now, or if stimulus has had a higher impact on that than we've thought. And then from a business perspective as well, there is the risk that some businesses using a combination of stimulus, as well as just taking losses, that businesses have made it through "to the other side," here with the expectation that demand is going to return, it's going to bail them out for loans they've taken on or what have you. And that the demand is ultimately not going to return to the point that they expect, and then they're going to go bankrupt. So there is the possibility that there is an increase in bankruptcies here, at least on the small business side that could lead to renewed economic weakness. So that's the scenario here where you'd see credit spreads begin to widen from a fundamental or macroeconomic perspective.

Dan Belton:

Yeah Dan. So to make my case for narrower credit spreads from a fundamental standpoint, I'd start by talking about expectations for GDP growth, which as you alluded to, are very, very strong and potentially do have some downside risks. So Bloomberg Economics is now forecasting a 7.7% GDP growth in 2021. Now that's a remarkably strong figure. And I would argue that while there is some downside risk to that number, for credit spreads to continue to narrow, we don't need GDP growth of 7.7%. We just need strong growth, which we are all but guaranteed to see in 2021. Now you talked about the potential for stimulus to slow and then some sectors failing to get up and walk on their own. And I agree with you. I think that is a longer-term consideration, but if we're talking about spreads breaking out of this current range in the next quarter, I don't think that is going to be a matter of stimulus running out.

Dan Belton:

I think in the near term, that stimulus is going to continue to drive demand for credit. And as this demand for credit continues to grow, what we're going to see is after this rotational tray that we just talked about, after that runs out of steam a little bit, it's likely that the next move is for the index as a whole to start to move narrower. Now rating actions by the big three agencies are at some of their most positive levels in the past 10 years by some metrics. As we've talked about a lot in our written work, that tends to correlate to spread compression in the IG Index.

Dan Belton:

Now we talked about at the beginning of this episode about how spread compression has been very strong already year to date. I think the next move, as we've seen triple B's get bid up and continue to be bid up to single A's and to the broad IG Index, as that trade continues to run its course, the next move as fundamentals remain extremely positive is simply going to be a narrowing in the IG Index. So while we've had this range-bound trading environment for most of Q1, I think a lot of that has been due to this obvious rotation trade where some of these laggard sectors have looked extremely attractive, given the economic reopening. Now that those sectors just started to catch up and we've seen broad spread compression in the IG Index, the next move is going to be a narrowing in credit spreads generally.

Dan Krieter:

Well, before moving onto the technical side of things, I will add one more fundamental factor that if I make the case for wider credit spreads from a fundamental perspective, I have to at least mention the possibility that we're going to see higher taxes. You mentioned that stimulus is likely not going to run out. Part of that is certainly attributable to expectations or optimism surrounding another stimulus plan focused on infrastructure spending here. But if that happens, we're going to see higher corporate taxes. We're going to see higher individual income taxes as well. And as we know historically, that is not good for risk assets. Now for corporate debt compared to say equities, I think that the change in the tax code isn't as impactful. I mean, on the corporate tax side, it really doesn't have much impact at all. Debt is paid before taxes in terms of the income statement.

Dan Krieter:

And so an increase in corporate taxed in my view, doesn't make it any less likely that you're going to be repaid from a credit risk standpoint. So I don't think credit risk is directly impacted by increasing corporate taxes, but we know that it's not good for equity markets. And while we could see corporate debt out perform equity markets for at least a little while. It's not like we're going to see a big correction in equity as while debt spreads continue to outperform. There will be a spillover effect if increasing corporate taxes has an impact on the equity market. So I guess I'm not sure if that would be considered technical or fundamental in terms of corporate spreads, but I think that's a risk factor to look out for it. It's the downside to stimulus remaining robust, but if I'm being very honest, I think that I lost that argument.

Dan Krieter:

I think that the case for improving fundamentals is more compelling, frankly, than the case for spreads widening from a fundamental perspective. I agree with you, Dan. I don't think that we're going to see stimulus run out in the near term, especially obviously if the Democrats deliver on another infrastructure spending program in the trillions of dollars like we're going to hear about from President Biden later today. So I think things look good for credit in the near term, even if I just made the argument for wider. Now let's turn to the technical side of things, which in the past few months that's been exerting the upward pressure on credit spreads. Dan, what's your argument for how that's going to change?

Dan Belton:

So we turned neutral on credit due primarily to deteriorate and technical. So I'll start there. And the two main reasons that we saw the technicals deteriorating were higher Treasury yields and elevated corporate supply. So with respect to corporate supply, yes, we saw high yield corporate supply did register a record for this quarter. Now, despite a near record in IG supply in Q1, credit spreads hung in fairly well. And there's a lot of reason to believe that supply is going to start to normalize in Q2. Now the business cycle has certainly turned over. We are now in early expansionary phase of the business cycle. And typically during that phase of the business cycle supply starts to fall relative to the contractionary stage.

Dan Belton:

Now there's reason to think that this won't be as extreme in this cycle and I'm sympathetic to that notion. But I do believe that given the supply that we've seen and the resiliency of credit spreads during that supply, that should bode well for credit spreads going forward while technicals start to get a little bit more favorable. Now in the Treasury yield story, yes, this sell off in Treasury yields has been fairly relentless and continues to go seemingly day after day.

Dan Belton:

It seems like every week we have another 10 or 15 basis points sell off in Treasuries, but again, this hasn't led to outright widening in credit spreads. And there's no guarantee that this rise in Treasury yields continues on for Q2. And so with those two factors in mind, I believe that the peak technical headwinds for credit spreads are largely behind us and that Q1 represented the worst technical period for credit spreads in 2021. And things are likely to only improve from here in Q2. Now, technicals are not going to pose a tailwind by any means for credit in the second quarter of this year, but they should be a lot better than they were last quarter. And that should bode well for credit spreads, just relative to what they've seen year to date.

Dan Krieter:

Thanks Dan. So now it's my turn to make the argument for technicals continuing to exert upward pressure. And I'll start where you started, on the issuance side. It's hard for me to see issuance increasing markedly from Q1. Like you said, Q1 was basically a record if we throw out 2020 and the impact of COVID, we had a record year. And that's just talking about IG. High yield issuance has also been a record. Clearly there's a ton of desire out there for funding. Now, what is that funding for? Is it for refinancing? Is it for cash needs? Is it for M&A? I think that we've seen some increasing M&A activity and I think that could be sustained going forward. So that could continue to keep corporate supply pretty heavy here. Cash ratios on corporate balance sheets remain extremely strong, but there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, at least regarding the pandemic.

Dan Krieter:

I agree that supply from an uncertainty standpoint should start to fall, but I don't know if it's going to fall off a cliff. Not yet, at least anyways. I think supply will still remain quite heavy. Even if it will be off record supply, it'll still remain very, very heavy. And we've seen distribution statistics on corporate deals. They're bouncing back and forth here, but the general trend has been worsening over the course of the past month with subscription levels falling, congestions increasing actually, or even positive last week. So we've seen some cracks in demand. Then I think that even if not a record, still heavy corporate supply, it's going to remain a drag at least for Q2 on technicals.

Dan Krieter:

And then talking about the move in Treasury rates, we can go back and forth here. I think that given the amount of optimism that's in the system that Treasury rates might continue to grind higher here and the 2% during the second quarter might be attainable. The key for me though, is that fundamental that we talked about and this technical influence of Treasury yields are inextricably tied together. You can't have Treasury yield staying range-bound if optimism on the economy is going to remain very, very high. If that's the case, yields are going to keep going higher.

Dan Krieter:

And if yields do indeed keep going higher, I think it's going to have an impact on credit spreads, both just from a, "At this point, spreads are too narrow. Why don't I just own a Treasury here? The compensation for the credit risk I'm taking is just not high enough," but also the more traditional impact of higher rates on credit that it's just credit negative for the business, higher debt service costs, all that. It's just going to make it difficult for spreads to continue narrowing.

Dan Belton:

Yeah, Dan, that's a good point about how the fundamentals and technicals of the market are tied together and that Treasury yields are likely to continue increasing as long as economic fundamentals remain positive. The only thing I'd say is that we've had credit spreads reach historical tights with Treasury rates significantly higher than they are today. And that's largely been a function in the past of an accommodative Fed and low volatility with a yield grab environment persisting over several quarters, if not years. And in this cycle, things have happened much more quickly than in the past.

Dan Belton:

So I would argue that even if Treasury yields continue to move marginally higher in an orderly fashion, that we could have credit spreads continue to make historical tights. As I think we both agree that the Fed is not going to remove a combination at any time in the next year or so. And that's just going to bode well for demand for credit, which yes, I agree that primary market demand for credit has seen some cracks here in the past few weeks, but it does remain constructive on a historical basis. And I expect that to remain the case. And for this yield grab that has maybe taken a little bit of a breather in Q1 to start to return in Q2 and beyond.

Dan Krieter:

Okay Dan, I think at this point I'm prepared to concede that the case for narrower credit spreads is probably more compelling than the case for wider credit spreads at this point. But I would caveat that by saying that the entire argument for narrower spreads to me is based off of this grind outlook that rates should stay relatively range-bound, the Fed's not going anywhere, we're going to have this reach for yield to stable environment. And in that case, spreads could maybe continue to grind narrower, get to that 88 basis point low we saw in February, maybe go narrower, start to threaten the 84 basis point 25 year low reached in 2018. I mean, we're not far off those lows, but at least for me, I can make a case pretty easily for spreads being significantly wider, okay?

Dan Krieter:

It would look something like Treasury rates, aren't stable, they continue to increase rapidly. The economy reopens, we actually get inflation and Treasury rates continue to go higher. If that's the case, spreads are almost going to have to widen, but at the same time, we're going to have stimulus inevitably having to be drawn out of the system and maybe hitting some of those economic rough patches that I talked about. And then you can start seeing the argument for, I don't want to say stagflation, because that's not really what I think, but inflation being very strong, but also some weak points in the economy, that K shaped recovery, that are just going to take a much, much longer time to recover. And if that is the environment that ultimately takes hold, I could see credit spreads being significantly wider from where they are right now. Say plus 20 to 25 basis points. I don't see an environment where spreads are 20 to 25 basis points narrower. Do you?

Dan Belton:

No, probably not. I think that's spot on. I think there is certainly an asymmetric risk profile to credit spreads at current levels.

Dan Krieter:

So from a high level, if that's the outlook, what's your risk reward? I guess that comes down to where you fall on the risk aversion scale. I tend to be a little more risk averse. And if I've got a, let's say 75% chance that I'm going to get four to eight basis points of spread compression in the next three months, but in one of four scenarios, I get spreads 25 basis points wider, I tend to fall on not loving that risk reward ratio. And so as I'm approaching credit right now, I'm a little more wary. I'd like to see stability in Treasury rates before going back long again. And I just don't think we've reached that point of stability.

Dan Krieter:

So in terms of how to trade it, I still like the way we've been positioned, this barbell at the very top end of the credit spectrum and the SSA agency space to reduce risk. And then in that triple B space to realize some potential return is that sector rotation has continued. There may not be a whole lot of juice left in that trade, but I think there's enough to leave the view unchanged at this point. And maybe reassess in coming weeks with where we are, see how much Treasury rates have moved over that time period. How do you see it?

Dan Belton:

I agree. I think the credit spread compression trade has come a long way. I think there's probably a little bit longer to go and I still like triple B's for that reason. I think that we've seen this in primary markets. We've seen ample anecdotal evidence of just strong demand for yield and that's going to continue to benefit triple B's. And then further up the credit spectrum in the SSA space. The technicals are really positive there. And SSAs are largely immune from some of the technical headwinds we've just discussed that plague corporates. And so I think this barbell is going to continue to be appropriate, at least in the near term. It might not be something that we hold on to for the next several months, but for now I think it's an appropriate stance given what we've talked about.

Dan Krieter:

Okay. Well, before signing off Dan, I just want to spend a couple of minutes talking about swap spreads here just very briefly. We've seen some widening. We've been positioned for wideners, that's what we've gotten over the course of the past week. We're still not quite at the highs. Still a couple basis points off the highs of the past few months. And just some interesting action at the short end of the curve or interesting inaction, I guess. SOFR has been tied at one basis point now for multiple weeks. And now what we're seeing today is potential downward pressure on Fed funds, which is new. We've talked about IOER, RRP tweaks, and we haven't gotten those because Fed funds has stayed well-anchored at seven basis points. Reports are coming out, Fed funds could drop to around five basis points. Then we start taking the chances that the Fed is going to have to make a technical adjustment more seriously. Dan, what would be your view on how a technical adjustment might impact swap spreads?

Dan Belton:

So I think if the Fed does follow through with a technical adjustment, it would be a modest narrower. I think it would resolve some of the issues that are going on in the front end of the market, but I'm not so certain that this pressure on Fed funds is going to persist until the Fed's next meeting, which is about a month away now. It could be more of a quarter end, month ends type of pressure that we see start to be relieved in the next few sessions. And time will tell on that, but Fed funds is a tricky indicator to get ahold of because there's light volumes in there. So a few different trades could really have an outsized impact on the market. And so we'll have to wait until this quarter end's pressure has passed to see what the lasting impact is on Fed funds.

Dan Krieter:

I certainly agree with that. I think the only borrowers really in the Fed funds market at this point are Yankee banks and the impact of quarter on non Yankee banks, particularly European banks is pretty well known here, that window dressing purposes will decrease their demand for borrowing. So it's not a huge surprise in quarter-end to see downward pressure on Fed funds at this point. We just have to monitor it and see if that weakness continues over into April or if we just bounce right back higher. But even if we don't and the Fed ultimately does deliver an in-range tweak, I don't think it matters too much for swap spreads. I think that probably one technical adjustment is price at this point. I mean, you have to be expecting one given how soft short on rates have been trading at this point.

Dan Krieter:

And really just looking forward I think swap spreads, the next big move there is going to depend on what ultimately happens with the SLR here. That was what was driving volatility in swap spreads a few weeks ago in bank demand even before that, as we saw the widening of the beginning of the year. We don't know when we're going to get the SLR determination from the Fed. We think it will be relatively soon. And the question will be, is it going to be reserves in Treasuries that are exempted or are we going to see just reserves? And then again, you have that binary outcome there where if it's just reserves, I think you could see some narrowing pressure on swap spreads. At this point, that might even be the most likely outcome for me. I think that the Fed has a more direct impact on the supply of reserves to the system as they do QE is they want to make sure those reserves can be absorbed. I'm not sure that they are as directly concerned with demand for Treasuries.

Dan Krieter:

So I think there is an argument there for reserves only being exempted from SLR ratios and that being a swab spread narrower. So while I still like Widener's more than narrowers, I don't think that there's a ton of juice there. I think if spreads continue to increase and we get to the levels that were the highs of the year that we reached just a few weeks ago, I might look at that as an opportunity to sell, because I think there is still significant risk out there from an SLR perspective. Not to mention the fact that eventually the TGA will get down to levels where it's not shrinking anymore. We're not there yet. Obviously that's going to continue influencing short rates lower and swap spreads wider in the near term, part of the reason is still like being long swap spreads, but that's going to run out too. So I would still hold onto those longs. But if we reached the peaks of the year, I might be looking to sell. Dan, anything else you want to cover before we wrap up?

Dan Belton:

No, I think that covers it. Thanks for listening.

Dan Krieter:

Wishing everybody a very good, long weekend. I guess it's not a long weekend, but enjoy the holidays. We're off next week. We're doing a monthly <acro round table with the broader team. So we'll be back in two weeks here in High Quality Spreads. See you in mid April.

Dan Krieter:

Thanks for listening to Macro Horizons. Please visit us at BMOcm.com/macrohorizons. As we aspire to keep our strategy efforts as interactive as possible, we'd love to hear what you thought of today's episode. Please email us at Daniel.Belton, B-E-L-T-O-N, @bemo.com. You can listen to this show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or your favorite podcast provider. This show is supported by our team here at BMO, including the FIC Macro Strategy Group in BMO's marketing team. This show has been edited and produced by Puddle Creative.

Speaker 2:

This podcast has been prepared with the assistance of employees of Bank of Montreal, BMO Nesbitt Burns Incorporated, and BMO Capital Markets Corporation together BMO, who are involved in fixed income and foreign exchange sales and marketing efforts. Accordingly, it should be considered to be a product of the fixed income and foreign exchange businesses generally, and not a research report that reflects the views of disinterested research analysts. Not withstanding the foregoing, this podcast should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for any particular product or services, including without limitation, any commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. We are not soliciting any specific action based on this podcast. It is for the general information of our clients. It does not constitute a recommendation or suggestion that any investment for strategy referenced here in maybe suitable for you.

Speaker 2:

It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Nothing in this podcast constitutes investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice or representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your unique circumstances, or otherwise constitutes an opinion or a recommendation to you. BMO is not providing advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in commodity interests, including futures contracts, and commodity options or any other activity, which would cause BMO or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the US Commodity Exchange Act. BMO is not undertaken to act as a swap advisor to you or in your best interest. And you to the extent applicable, will rely solely on advice from your qualified, independent representative for making hedging or trading decisions. This podcast is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.

Speaker 2:

You should conduct your own independent analysis of the matters referred to here in together with your qualified independent representative if applicable. BMO assumes no responsibility for verification of the information in this podcast, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. And BMO accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this podcast. BMO assumes no obligation to correct or update this podcast. This podcasts does not contain all information that may be required to evaluate any transaction or matter. And information may be available to BMO and or its affiliates that is not reflected here in. BMO and its affiliates may have positions long or short and affects transactions or make markets in securities mentioned here in or provide advice or loans to or participate in the underwriting or restructuring of the obligations of issuers and companies mentioned here in. Moreover, BMO's trading desk may have acted on the basis of the information in this podcast. For further information, please go to BMOcm.com/macrohorizons/legal.

 

Dan Krieter, CFA Directeur, Stratégie sur titres à revenu fixe
Dan Belton Vice-président - Stratégie sur titres à revenu fixe, Ph. D.



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