Au-delà des sondages : répercussions des élections de mi-mandat de 2026

LA VERSION FRANÇAISE SERA PUBLIÉE BIENTÔT

With several weeks to go before Americans head to the polls for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, it’s the Main Street issues – the price of groceries and a tank of gas – that are on people’s minds. Meanwhile, north of the border, Canadians are watching the midterms, too, anticipating the outcome could influence tariffs, trade and the economic relationship between the two countries. 

That was the backdrop for a September 30 digital event, “Beyond the Polls: Implications of the 2026 Midterms,” the first in a new macroeconomic series from BMO Capital Markets. François Trahan, Chief Investment Strategist, BMO Capital Markets, and Katherine Krantz, Portfolio Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, were joined by Carrie Dann, Managing Editor of The Cook Political Report. 

The panelists discussed the economic pressures shaping the election, the issues investors should watch for and what the result could mean for markets and policy.  

Listen to the discussion:

Here are highlights from the discussion: 

Inflation and affordability are the dominant forces shaping the U.S. midterm elections, said François Trahan. Historically, he noted that the party in power has lost an average of 26 House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections held since World War II and highlighted a long-term relationship between inflation and congressional seat turnover. 

Carrie Dann said that The Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain five to 15 House seats, enough to win a majority but well short of the 41 they picked up in 2018. The Senate is effectively a coin toss, she noted.  

Dann cautioned against reading the projected gains as an embrace of the Democratic Party. Instead, she pointed to the political toll that inflation and affordability are having on voters. “Every day, when a voter fills up their minivan at the gas station or gets groceries, they’re reminded of an economy they overwhelmingly say is not working for them,” she explained.  

Krantz noted that affordability remains a key focus for investors as well, given its influence on consumer spending, corporate earnings and the broader economic outlook. 

Some of the closest Senate races are unfolding in states with deep trade ties to Canada, including Ohio, Iowa, Maine and Alaska. Tariffs on Canadian goods have become a political issue in those contests, said Dann. While Americans have accepted tariffs aimed at specific products or sectors, she said country-wide tariffs have proven far less popular.  

Trahan said tariffs are also contributing to the reacceleration of core PCE inflation. “This is an issue for the Fed and it has broader implications for the markets,” he said. He added that a tightening cycle can be particularly challenging for equity valuations and growth stocks. 

Trahan noted that data centers and AI have emerged as increasingly important issues in the run-up to the midterms. While AI-driven productivity gains could prove deflationary over the longer term, he said the current phase of investment is being viewed as inflationary, which may be contributing to changing public sentiment toward data centers. Krantz noted that many smaller businesses have yet to adopt AI at scale, potentially delaying the widespread productivity gains many expect. 

Many investors view the state of U.S. fiscal policy as one of the most significant long-term economic risks, despite getting little attention from politicians, Trahan explained. He said it would take roughly 7.2% real gross domestic product growth over 10 years, while keeping inflation very low, to balance the budget. Dann said that concern rarely reaches voters, who tend to focus on the cost of living over debt and deficits. 

A divided Congress would be unlikely to pass significant legislation, Dann said, though she suggested AI and technology could be among the few areas where bipartisan cooperation remains possible. 

She also expects healthcare affordability to become a more prominent political issue, even if it’s unlikely to dominate the policy agenda in the next two years. As voters continue to focus on cost-of-living concerns, she said healthcare costs could become an increasingly important part of that conversation.  

Looking ahead to 2028, Dann suggested AI could emerge as one of the defining campaign issues, with healthcare and affordability remaining close behind.  

While speculation about the next presidential race has already begun, Dann cautioned against drawing conclusions too early. "I always say that if you're hearing about a candidate with a whole lot of energy behind them this early in the cycle, they've probably peaked too early."