Après des décennies de discussions, c’est finalement arrivé : le gouvernement fédéral a relevé l’impôt sur les gains en capital. Cependant, la hausse, qui fait passer le taux d’inclusion des gains en capital de 50 % à 66,7 %, ne s’applique qu’aux particuliers qui réalisent des gains de plus de 250 000 $ sur un an ou aux gains réalisés par une société ou une fiducie. « Le taux d’inclusion des gains en capital est clairement ce qui ressort, a déclaré Doug Porter, économiste en chef et premier directeur général de BMO, lors de la table ronde de BMO, intitulée « Premier coup d’œil sur le budget fédéral canadien de 2024 ». M. Porter, qui était accompagné de John Waters, directeur général, Services-conseils en fiscalité de BMO Gestion privée, et de Camilla Sutton, directrice générale, chef, Recherche sur les actions, Canada et Royaume-Uni, BMO Marchés des capitaux, ont déclaré qu’il s’agissait d’un budget inhabituel dans l’ensemble, en ce sens que la plupart des mesures de dépenses avaient été annoncées dans les jours et les semaines précédentes. Le jour de la publication du budget, « les principales questions portaient sur la façon dont ce budget serait financé, » a commenté M. Porter; il souligne que le budget ajoute 36 milliards de dollars de nouvelles dépenses au cours des cinq prochaines années, alors que le déficit budgétaire est estimé à 39,8 milliards de dollars pour l’exercice 2024/2025. De toute évidence, le financement provient de l’augmentation des recettes fiscales et M. Waters parle d’un budget de « dépenses et d’impôts ». « Nous consacrons beaucoup de financement au logement et à l’abordabilité en particulier, mais le principal thème sera l’augmentation de l’impôt des riches, » a-t-il indiqué. Disponible en anglais seulement Markets Plus est diffusé en direct sur toutes les grandes plateformes, dont Apple, et Spotify.  Augmentation des gains en capital L’augmentation du taux d’inclusion des gains en capital devrait toucher une petite fraction des Canadiens, et potentiellement des milliers d’entreprises, mais il s’agit « néanmoins d’un changement relativement important, » selon M. Porter. Elle pourrait également avoir une incidence sur les Canadiens moyens qui possèdent une maison de campagne dont la valeur a augmenté au fil du temps ou un bien à revenu qui doit être vendu. En l’état, pour les particuliers, tout gain inférieur à 250 000 $ sera toujours imposé au taux d’inclusion normal de 50 %. Si vous êtes dans la fourchette d’imposition la plus élevée, vous paieriez tout de même environ 25 % d’impôt sur ce gain (selon la province). Si vous réalisez des gains de plus de 250 000 $, le nouveau taux d’imposition mixte pourrait maintenant dépasser 30 % en tenant compte de l’impôt provincial. M. Waters a souligné que le nouveau taux plus élevé des gains en capital est maintenant similaire au taux le plus élevé sur les dividendes déterminés. « L’écart entre les taux les plus élevés sur les gains en capital et les revenus de dividendes qui existaient dans le passé est maintenant beaucoup plus réduit, a-t-il indiqué. Il est possible que les Canadiens plus fortunés se hâtent de vendre des biens ou des actifs avant que le nouveau taux n’entre en vigueur en juin, a ajouté M. Porter, puis s’accrochent à leurs actifs pendant un certain temps avant de les revendre de nouveau. En effet, c’est ce à quoi s’attend le gouvernement. Il estime que cette hausse fiscale générera des revenus de 19,4 milliards de dollars au cours des cinq prochaines années, dont 6,9 milliards devraient être générés en 2024, pour atteindre environ de 4 milliards à 5 milliards de dollars au cours de ses quatrième et cinquième années. « Nous allons peut-être assister à une grande vague de ventes maintenant, puis à un gel dans un an ou deux, » a conclu M. Porter. Incitatifs pour les entrepreneurs La hausse d’impôt aura une incidence sur certains propriétaires d’entreprise, mais le gouvernement a aidé les entrepreneurs en faisant passer l’exonération cumulative des gains en capital (ECGC) d’environ un million de dollars à 1,25 million de dollars (ce montant sera indexé sur l’inflation à compter de 2026), ce qui permettra aux propriétaires qui vendent leur entreprise de recevoir un produit plus élevé de la vente de leur société sans être assujettis à l’impôt. « Par contre, il y a certaines évolutions positives parallèlement à cette augmentation de l’impôt sur les gains en capital, » a déclaré M. Waters. En plus de la hausse de l’ECGC, le nouvel incitatif aux entrepreneurs canadiens mis en place par le gouvernement pourrait encore réduire le taux d’imposition sur les gains en capital des propriétaires d’entreprise lors de la vente admissible des actions de leur entreprise – au-delà de l’ECGC – de moitié (à 33 %) sur les gains réalisés après 2024. Le montant des gains potentiellement admissibles au taux inférieur commencera à 200 000 $ en 2025 et augmentera ensuite de 200 000 $ par an, jusqu’à un maximum de 2 millions de dollars d’ici 2034. Cependant, certaines restrictions s’appliquent, puisque le nouvel incitatif est plus restrictif que l’ECGC. Notamment, il ne s’applique pas aux sociétés professionnelles ni aux sociétés des secteurs des services financiers, des assurances, de l’immobilier, de l’alimentation et de l’hébergement, des arts, des loisirs, du divertissement, des services-conseils ou des services de soins personnels. Entre autres critères, on doit aussi être le fondateur de l’entreprise et  avoir travaillé activement dans la société pendant cinq ans. Il y a une pépite supplémentaire pour les entrepreneurs : celui qui vend des actions d’une société à une fiducie collective des employés – une fiducie qui détient des actions d’une société pour le compte de ses employés afin de leur faciliter la vente de l’entreprise – peut recevoir une exonération des gains en capital de 10 millions de dollars lorsque ces actions sont vendues à la fiducie. L’exemption est par entreprise, plutôt que par particulier; par conséquent, un groupe de propriétaires n’obtiendra qu’une exemption fiscale collective de 10 millions de dollars lorsqu’il vendra des actions à la fiducie, explique M. Waters. Changements apportés à l’impôt minimum de remplacement Le budget a également proposé une nouvelle réflexion sur l’impôt minimum de remplacement (IMR), qui a retenu beaucoup l’attention l’an dernier, car certains craignaient que les changements proposés dissuadent les personnes fortunées de faire des dons importants à des organismes de bienfaisance. L’IMR est un calcul fiscal parallèle qui permet moins de déductions, d’exemptions et de crédits d’impôt qu’en vertu des règles fiscales ordinaires et qui applique un taux d’imposition fixe sur ce revenu imposable rajusté, le client payant soit l’IMR soit l’impôt ordinaire, selon le montant le plus élevé. En vertu de la proposition initiale, de nombreuses personnes qui ont fait des dons importants d’actions de sociétés cotées en bourse auraient pu être assujetties à l’IMR. Pour réduire l’incidence sur les donateurs, le budget propose de permettre maintenant aux particuliers de réclamer 80 %, par rapport à la proposition précédente de 50 %, du crédit d’impôt pour dons de charité dans le calcul de l’IMR. « Les changements apportés au budget de cette année tenteront de répondre à certaines de ces préoccupations et permettront d’accorder un crédit d’impôt pour dons de charité supérieur aux fins de ce calcul distinct de l’IRM, » a précisé M. Waters, qui a ajouté que cette mise à jour est probablement le changement le plus notable dans le budget pour le secteur des organismes de bienfaisance. « Il s’agit donc d’une modification positif. » Autres annonces La plupart des autres annonces étaient déjà connues. Cela comprend le relèvement de la période d’amortissement de 25 à 30 ans pour les nouveaux propriétaires qui achètent des maisons neuves, l’augmentation de la somme que les gens peuvent retirer de leur REER dans le cadre du Régime d’accession à la propriété, qui passe de 35 000 $ à 60 000 $, et l’offre de prêts à faible taux d’intérêt de 40 000 $ pour ceux qui ajoutent un appartement accessoire à une maison existante. Au bout du compte, M. Porter considère que le budget n’est pas allé assez loin pour régler les problèmes de productivité du Canada, mais pour ceux qui sont préoccupés par la hausse de l’impôt sur les gains en capital, il a souligné qu’elle aurait pu être pire. « Il y a un modeste soulagement, a-t-il dit. Les mesures fiscales ne visaient pas expressément les sociétés au moyen de soi-disant "impôt sur les bénéfices excédentaires", aucun changement n’a été apporté aux taux marginaux ni aucune mesure fiscale générale sur la fortune ajoutée, alors qu’ils avaient tous fait l’objet de rumeurs dans les semaines, voire les heures précédant le budget. »

  Disponible en anglais seulement Companies in the Canadian energy sector have been focused on streamlining operations and lowering greenhouse gas emissions to stay competitive with other global energy powerhouses; however, those efforts are often not reflected in company valuations. The sector is using share buybacks and dividends to entice investors, especially as large institutional investors retreat from carbon-based energy investments, but valuations have yet to catch up. “It’s a missed opportunity,” my colleague Randy Ollenberger, Oil & Gas Producers Analyst at BMO Capital Markets, explained at the BMO Capital Markets CAPP Energy Symposium in Toronto. Valuations in the sector remain attractive even after the strong performance it’s already had this year. “We’re on the cusp of delivering significant amounts of surplus cash flow to shareholders, and we think that that cash flow will start to positively influence the valuation of the sector,” he told the crowd gathered at the preeminent energy conference featuring more than 300 delegates and roughly 60 companies. That sentiment was echoed in the “Balancing Growth & Return of Capital Initiatives” panel that I moderated. The panel featured:   Jonathan Wright, President and CEO, NuVista Energy  Jim Riddell, President and CEO, Paramount Resources  Grant Fagerheim, President and CEO, Whitecap Resources  These CEOs try to balance shareholder demand for dividends and share buybacks with earning a better return on that free cash flow by investing in their own growth. Return of capital   NuVista Energy’s Jonathan Wright explained that those initiatives account for between two-thirds and 80% of the company’s cash flow, depending on commodity prices, while capex has been constant. Paramount has adopted a similar strategy, focusing on dividends. Still, as much as Jim Riddell knows shareholders are looking for that payout, the priority is reserving some of its free cash flow to fuel its growth. “We’ve definitely heard loud and clear from investors that they want to see more return of capital,” he said. Riddell understands where investors are coming from. They want to see an industry grow less and generate more free cash flow than in recent years. However, the other challenge is that there isn’t enough differentiation between the companies, with some prioritizing returning cash to shareholders, which may not always be the most productive way to use that cash flow.  He expects the industry will shift toward the best opportunities. “The industry has to find a way to allocate capital to the best opportunities and not all the opportunities,” said Riddell. Investors are looking for dividends and buybacks, but they also want to invest in companies with scale. They want to see that the energy companies can deliver in all markets. Regarding M&A, the panel believes consolidation to increase size and scale could boost valuations.  Size does matter, and it can demonstrate more return on sustainability and profitability, said Whitecap’s Grant Fagerheim. “The ability to demonstrate that your company does feature both sustainability and profitability at various price levels is key,” he explained. “Just introducing size, potentially, could advance trading multiples.”  Top takeaways from the Q&A session  Q: Do you expect to see increased U.S. investor activism here in Canada as we’ve seen in the U.S.?  A: Fagerheim responded, “The discussions will increase as we advance closer to October 2025, which is an election year here in Canada. There will be opportunities for U.S. producers and investors to come up here and potentially be more aggressive. Capital investment is mobile and goes where it is welcome and can provide a return.” Q: How is access to capital different today?   A: Riddell responded that it hasn’t had much impact because Paramount hasn’t relied as heavily on raising money in the equity market. “We’ve always tried to have a business that we’ve grown without having to use equities, so it feels like the playing field has been leveled a little bit, but the access to capital for the entire industry has been massively restricted,” he said.   Q: What would it take for mid-cap companies to capture some of the LNG market?   A: Wright explained that it continues to be challenging. “LNG has been a market that’s closed to smaller companies or intermediates, which is why we’re one of the founding members of Rockies LNG, a partnership of Canadian natural gas producers working together to advance West Coast LNG opportunities,” he said. “Separately, a company our size can’t compete in this part of the market, but together, we have 20% to 25% of the production and reserves in Canada.”  For the closing remarks, summarizing the opportunity in the Canadian energy sector, Wright noted how natural gas producers have grown while substantially reducing overall emissions. “We have the best environmental ethics in the world. We have the best human ethics in the world. And as an industry, we have delivered huge reductions in methane and greenhouse gas emissions while being able to grow. That’s what the world should want.” 

  Disponible en anglais seulement Western Canadian natural gas producers expect to see an increase in demand in the latter half of the year on the back of a project coming online in months. The LNG Canada project is a significant liquified natural gas plant and pipeline emanating from Kitimat, British Columbia.   The facility will allow Western Canadian producers to reach global markets such as Asia, where there is significant demand for natural gas. This is one reason why BMO sees room for valuations to increase in the sector, particularly as supply gets incrementally tighter over the course of the year and into 2025. The positive outlook is a welcome change, but producers will still have to navigate a series of challenges that could constrain their output.   Understanding the market forces at play was the focus of the “Outlook for Western Canadian Gas” panel that I recently hosted in Toronto at the BMO Capital Markets CAPP Energy Symposium, featuring:  Jamie Heard, Vice President of Capital Markets, Tourmaline Oil Corp.  Chris Carlsen, President and CEO, Birchcliff Energy  Jean-Paul Lachance, President and CEO, Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.  Outlook for natural gas  “There’s certainly some pessimistic views on the summer gas price, which we’ll need to get through first,” said Birchcliff’s Chris Carlsen. However, he says the LNG Canada project and a potential increase in demand for power generation in Alberta are encouraging for the sector. With that pick-up still several months away, Birchcliff is deferring some of its capital spending to the second half of the year to ensure any new production can capitalize on higher demand.   Peyto’s Jean-Paul Lachance estimates that LNG Canada will represent 10% of Western Canadian gas once the facility comes on stream. “That’s material,” he said. “Anytime you can put up a market into tension like that, it’s going to be good for the market.” LNG Canada may not have an immediate impact on Peyto’s current output, but it will be constructive to the basin's egress capacity.   What’s more, the development of LNG Canada is important to Western Canadian producers, but other new LNG facilities in the U.S. and Canada can also affect this sector.   As important as it is for the sector to have a global footprint, Tourmaline’s Jamie Heard is also encouraged by the potential for higher demand in North America, with the growing use of heat pumps, electric vehicles and data servers. “In our view, I would agree, we will continue to see weak cash pricing both locally and in the U.S. firming through the summer, and then more rapidly in the fall,” he said.   Expanding LNG  In Canada, other liquified natural gas projects are also in the works. Rockies LNG, a partnership of Western Canadian natural gas producers looking to develop LNG export opportunities, can also change the landscape.   The way these LNG projects are being developed is noteworthy. In the case of Rockies LNG, the project leads have partnered with the Nisga'a Nation, which owns the traditional territory where the floating LNG facility will be located. Nisga’a Nation also has an ownership stake in the project, which is helping the project gain traction and reach new milestones.   “Our partners in Ksi Lisims have a pipeline that’s permitted all the way to the West Coast,” said Carlsen. The project already has an offtake agreement, and it’s working on others. “From a producer point of view, it’s the access to global markets that we’re really after for Canadian producers,” he said.   Constraints on supply  As much as natural gas producers want to get their products to market, there are limitations. As Carlsen explains, finding capacity on the TransCanada Pipelines can take up to four years due to the consultation periods, system modeling, and regulatory process. “All those have added up,” he said, noting that wait time is almost double what it was many years ago.   Finding skilled workers is another challenge that affects all energy produced in Western Canada, causing companies like Birchcliff to carefully pick which projects to develop.   Nevertheless, Birchcliff’s Chris Carlsen is looking forward to a second-half pick-up in energy demand this year. “We see some real positives in terms of the demand-pull that’s coming,” he said. 

Disponible en anglais seulement   Oil and gas companies have recently managed to court some interest from generalist investors, such as pension funds and broad-based mutual funds, and now face the challenge of increasing investment from this important source of capital.   Over the past year, generalist investors have taken an interest in the sector partly because crude oil has climbed more than 25% so far this year1, while many energy companies have cleaned up their balance sheets and are investing in growth. Also, many continue to increase shareholder value by buying back shares. Since January, the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index is up about 24%.2   How can producers continue increasing interest among generalist investors? That’s what was discussed in the “Access to Capital” panel I moderated at the recent BMO Capital Markets CAPP Energy Symposium in Toronto. The panel featured:  Rob Broen, President and CEO Athabasca Oil  Jason Jaskela, President, CEO and Director, Headwater Exploration  Steve Loukas, President and CEO, Obsidian Energy   Brian Schmidt, President and CEO, Tamarack Valley Energy  It’s still the early days when it comes to generalists moving into the energy space, said Athabasca’s Rob Broen, but investors are looking for companies that provide competitive returns, durability through commodity cycles, and can scale. With a clean balance sheet, plenty of cash, a large reserve base and good trading liquidity, Broen said Athabasca is in a good position to give investors what they’re looking for. Headwater’s Jason Jaskela said generalists are starting to move down cap and invest in companies with long-duration assets. Strong balance sheets are critical, too. “People want to see sustainable resources for a long period of time,” he said. “Those organizations are starting to see multiple expansions, and hopefully that continues.” It also helps to be in the S&P/TSX Energy Index, added Obsidian’s Steve Loukas, whose company, among many other smaller producers, is not yet included. He’s seeing interest from high-net-worth family offices, but “there’s a line in the sand that’s been drawn, and you need to be indexed.” A multi-strategy approach   For companies to continue attracting capital, they’ll need to take a multi-prong approach to increase value, noted the panelists. One common strategy to boost value is through share buybacks. Athabasca, for instance, is allocating 100% of its free cash flow to share repurchases. In 2023 alone, it bought back 58 million shares. “Based on today’s price, that was a good investment,” said Broen. “We’re in the market every day through an automatic repurchase plan, and through those buybacks, you get compounded cash flow per share growth. That’s a formula that’s been working.” While Loukas’ company has also bought back shares, he’s wary of only relying on repurchases. “If you’re operating at a high level and you buy back new shares, are you raising the point that it’s not as attractive on a relative basis relative to some of your other opportunities?” Growing production, improving cash flows, and repurchasing shares at accretive prices “is a powerful combination when things go your way, and they certainly are right now,” he said. Growing interest from U.S. investors   Some panelists noted that they’re seeing more interest from U.S. investors, with Tamarack’s Brian Schmidt pointing out that some of the biggest generalist investors in Canada – Canadian pension plans – continue to move away from the sector. “We used to be about 45% owned by Canadian pensions, and that’s gone down to about 7%,” he said. For him, the big question is how to replace that capital, and so far, it’s by attracting U.S. investors. They’re interested in buying assets that have tier-one inventory and low decline rates, he explained. “That’s resonating with U.S. investors, and it’s where we’ve had the biggest impact over the last, say, six months,” he said. Although, the pendulum may be swinging back when it comes to Canadian investors, as many have a solid understanding of the oil and gas sector. The energy sector’s significant progress around emission reduction is something investors may also want to pay closer attention to. As Lisa Baiton, CAPP’s President & CEO said in her opening remarks to the symposium, the conventional oil and gas sector has grown production while reducing emssions over the past decade. Many operations, however, don’t bring up their progress enough. “When the industry speaks about their investments and progress on emissions, they don’t call it out because it’s just part of their day-to-day business,” she said. More focus on performance   Going forward, companies should expect more scrutiny from investors, especially around performance. Broen said he’s noticed people asking more questions about asset performance and operational results, where they used to focus almost solely on the balance sheet. “The meetings are much, much deeper on the quality and predictability of the asset base in terms of performance, and investors are more knowledgeable about what we have,” he said. Investors now want to know how companies can “turn one dollar into three,” noted Jaskela. A couple of years ago, people wanted companies to give as much money as they could back to shareholders. Now they want to know how much more can the business grow and what the opportunity set looks like. It's a process  While attention from generalists is increasing, it will still take some time before more oil companies and investors start thinking beyond dividend yields and buybacks, added Loukas. For too long, people thought you could engineer a big multiple with a large dividend, and then many clamored for buybacks. But Loukas pointed out that conversations have changed since Obsidian announced a three-year growth plan last September.   “Some investors embraced those plans because they recognize that the returns are more attractive than dividends, while there’s an upper bound on how many shares you can buy. It’s taken time, though,” he said. “The return of some of our development programs has validated the decisions we’ve made, but it’s a process.”    1 https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1   2 https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-tsx-capped-energy/#overview